Saturday, August 24, 2013

Does U.S. Muscle in the Mediterranean Have Syria in its Sights?

Or is it just another muddled message?

We the public are being kept appraised of the addition of U.S. warships in the Mediterranean, with the media adding the detail that they packing cruise missiles. (Obviously the Obama regime made a point of mentioning this to reporters so they'd pass it along to us- and not incidentally to the horrendous Assad regime in Syria.)

The latest crisis within this ongoing tragedy (now over two years old, with over 100,000 dead, 7,000 of whom are estimated to be children, and millions of internal and external refugees- oh yes, and the country's infrastructure is being systematically reduced to rubble by Assad's bombardments) is of course prompted by the latest Assad regime atrocity- another poison gas attack. So far, the UN inspectors inside Syria have been blocked from going to the area. (A rebel pocket in a Damascus suburb which is surrounded by Assad forces.)

Obama is being pulled by the political undertow to at least look like military "action" is a possibility. But a hard-core thug like Assad is hardly going to be impressed by a few warships. He already knows the U.S. has a Navy. And two years of U.S. standing by and mainly issuing verbal denunciations and doing not much more must give Assad confidence that the "red line" Obama drew- namely "no chemical weapons use," was a pure bluff. Meanwhile Russia pours arms into Syria to prop up Assad, Iran does likewise, plus sends "advisers" to help the war effort, and Hezbollah sends its fighters from Syria to help.

Obama is in an unenviable position, but one partly of his own making. Remember when the uprising began? It looked like Assad's days were numbered. That is why Obama and his then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, both repeatedly said "Assad must go." They said that because they believed it would happen. And it may have, if serious armaments had been shipped to the rebels. (Before foreign jihadists got in on the act, much later!) I haven't heard anyone in the U.S. Government saying "Assad must go" in quite a while, not even anonymously. Now they vaguely talk about a "diplomatic solution," whatever that's supposed to be. Maybe everyone will just stop fighting, if we say the right thing!

If Obama actually goes ahead and blows up something Assad cares about (his chemical weapons stockpiles would be a good place to start!) there are real risks. What if Assad tried to drag Israel in? It would be easy to do- just launch some missiles or artillery shells across the border- or a chemical munition! And the U.S. of course knows that Iran and Hezbollah, Assad's allies, don't "fight fair." They employ "terrorism," which means the U.S. has to wage "asymmetrical warfare." (I.e. B-2 bombers and aircraft carriers can't really defeat people sneaking around planting bombs, or blowing up trucks or themselves at U.S. embassies and consulates or businesses overseas, or in throngs of American tourists. Of course the U.S. also plays dirty- but that's called "special ops" or "covert ops" or "unconventional warfare," not terrorism, even though it's often indistinguishable in its civilian targets and methods, except for the suicide part.)

My guess is this is a feint by Obama, the sending of a couple of destroyers, (not even a cruiser! much less an aircraft carrier) and it is going to reinforce the impression of weakness when nothing happens. I hope I'm wrong, even though there are risks to using force. But as of now no one among Arabs and Muslims loves the U.S. At least if it sided with the rebellion, the millions of Arabs in the region who care about the plight of the people under siege would have a reason to feel more positively towards the U.S. There's not much point trying to straddle the fratricidal divides in the Arab world. But Obama is obviously anxious about jihadists managing to land a visible punch on American "interests." Not an irrational anxiety.

Oh by the way, that recent U.S. promise to finally send some small arms to the rebels? Not a single gun or bullet has been sent yet. Credibility's the watchword!


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