Sunday, September 15, 2013

Here We Go Round The (Diplomatic) Mulberry Bush, the Mulberry Bush, the Mulberry Bush...

Lovers of diplomacy and “peaceful solutions” to such “problems” as atrocities, mass murder, and ruthless tyrants systematically reducing the nations they rule to rubble must be in Seventh Heaven over the “framework agreement” between the U.S. and Russia to disarm [sic!] the Assad regime of Syria of its chemical weapons. To recap, the agreement (which the Syrian tyranny isn't even a party to, yet) calls for Assad to turn over by next week a complete and accurate accounting of his chemical weapons arsenal and all relevant locations, equipment, and delivery munitions. The regime is supposed to allow UN chemical weapons inspectors “immediate and unfettered” access to those sites. Then by November the regime is supposed to have destroyed its chemical mixing equipment. And within a year the regime must be completely rid of chemical weapons and production facilities. (Dream on.)

And if the Assad regime fails or refuses to comply? Why, then the matter goes straight to the UN Security Council!! Which will then duly proceed to huff and puff and blow Assad's house down.

Well, actually, no. The Russians will still veto any UN authorization for military action. And they are still publicly insisting the U.S. can't attack, under this agreement or international law.

Anyway, President Barack Obama issued a statement hailing the deal, which said in part: “We have a duty to preserve a world free from the fear of chemical weapons for our children. [He invokes children a lot, whenever he feels under pressure.] Today marks an important step towards achieving this goal.”

And after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry called the British Foreign Minister William Hague, Hague put out a statement calling the political gimmick agreement “a significant step forward.”

An important step, a significant step, a noteworthy step, a consequential step, a key step, a momentous step, a meaningful step, a substantial step, a weighty step, an awesome step, a groovy step, a neato step, an outtasight step, a fly step, a def step, a phat step, a whatever-positive-adjective-you-like step.

It's a pathetic, farcical, and tragic step, BACKWARDS. It means Assad got away scot-free with the sarin attack of August 21st. It strengthens Assad's position politically. It makes more problematic any U.S. moves to arm the rebels. It leaves intact Assad's air power.

The truth is, it would have been better to let Assad keep the chem weapons and take out his air force, which would weaken him in the civil war and likely deter his future use of chem weapons to boot. But probably the U.S. is more worried about some of the weapons ending up in jihadist hands in the future than about anything else. I think that is the hidden primary motive behind the U.S.' behavior.

But I hope I'm proven wrong about this deal's likely futility in removing all the chemical weapons. I'd rather be wrong this time than right. (Probably Assad will have to come partially clean, but it will be like pulling a stubborn mule along.)

Oh, by the way, before I forget to mention it, the Assad regime hasn't even actually officially agreed to any of this as of yet. But not to worry. Unnamed Obama regime “officials” whispered into the ears of New York Times reporters that “the American assumption is that much, if not all, of the accord has Mr. [sic] Assad's assent.” (Mr. Assad, indeed: the NY Times is always polite to a fault, even to mass murdering butchers.) [1]

So the U.S. assumes Assad is on board. (At least to “much” of the accord.) Well that sounds like something you can take to the bank! Just blithely assume what you want to believe is true. That's what responsible professionals do.

Well, what is the Assad regime actually saying? The Syrian state propaganda fake “news” agency, SANA, called the deal the U.S. and Russia made with each other “a starting point.” (This from the regime that is supposedly going to provide a complete and accurate list of its huge arsenal of poison gases by next week.) The Assad regime hasn't said it would abide by the deal. “A starting point” for what, exactly? The usual Assad regime evasions, dilatory tactics, prevarications and insulting lies, plus endless U.S. “negotiating” (haggling) with Russia, no doubt.

The Assad regime, remember- and its Russian backers too- is still insisting that the rebels themselves launched the sarin nerve agent attack on their own enclave in the Damascus suburbs on August 21st. Doesn't exactly inspire confidence in an accurate accounting of their stockpile and its locations, much less allowing its destruction, or of Russian efforts to compel Assad to abide by the deal he hasn't even acceded to (yet).

The U.S. and Russia between them have agreed that the regime has 1,000 tons of chemical weapons, including sarin and mustard gas. That's two million pounds of deadly chemicals. The U.S. identifies a minimum of 45 chemical weapon locations, a number the Russians insist is too high. (Already they disagree. Let the haggling begin!) And never mind that the Assad regime has been shuffling the poisons around like some Three Card Monte hustler. (How many years of searching did it take to find Saddam Hussein's arsenals?) That's 45 sites and counting.

And Obama is still talking big, claiming military action is still possible. Yet the first paragraph of the NY Times article I cited above says that the agreement “indefinitely stalled the prospect of American airstrikes.”

It sure looks that way.

Now we can start the long process of trying to pull Assad's innumerable teeth, one at a time. Good luck with that.

Here's some more free advice for the U.S. on top of the suggestion I made yesterday: when (if) Assad turns over that lying list next week (or doesn't), take out his six remaining airfields. That will prove the U.S. means business, and have the additional salutary effect of giving the rebels a much-needed leg up in the civil war. Enforce every comma and period in the deal to the letter.

Fat chance of that happening.

From the rebels' perspective, it all looks like a Munich-style sell-out.

From the aforementioned NY Times article, we learn that “the sense of betrayal” (among the rebels towards the U.S.) “has grown intensely in recent days.” A rebel commander is cited as feeling the U.S. was abandoning the rebels and leaving them at the mercy of the regime and its allies, Russia and Iran.

Another rebel commander said in an interview with the Times that “I don't care about deals anymore. The Americans found a way out of the [air]strike.” (Just as the British and French found a way to abandon the Czechs to the Nazis in 1938, when they had no stomach for a possible fight. Of course that was even worse in the sense of there being a treaty alliance, not mere constant proclamations of support as in the case of the U.S. and the Syrian rebellion.) He continued: “The Russians did what they want. The Americans lied, and believed their own lie – the U.S. doesn't want democracy in Syria. [Well duh, buddy.] Now I have doubts about the U.S. capacities, their military and intelligence capacities. The Iranian capacity is much stronger, I guess.”

Ouch!


[1] “U.S. and Russia Reach A Deal on Dismantling Syria's Chemical Arms,” New York Times, Sunday, September 15th, 2013, pg. 1.

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